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The underrated stock survey! Submit your picks for the community to track
Following on the previous tracking post (http://redd.it/i2mmzg) and the highly upvoted request from DJ-Ascii , I've set up this post for another round of underrated or undervalued stock picks. As before, let us know what stock you believe is underrated and a consistent winner that has done well for you, or you believe will do well going forward. In order to make this easier to track please use the following guidelines for submitting.
Only one submission per comment. You can make multiple comments, but please only submit one stock per comment.
Please include at least the ticker and the company name. Feel free to explain why you think this is a good stock.
I'll add these new picks alongside the old survey so as to update you on each portfolio over time. Don't worry about any overlaps. Edit 1: I've compiled everyone who has posted so far, but I'll look out for any final additions tomorrow. The list will then be locked EOD on Friday the 7th of August, and all prices will start from there. Edit 2: All picks have now been locked down and consolidated into the list below. Stocks are sorted in alphabetical order of their company name and the ID corresponds to the approximate order in which they were submitted. The next update will be in 30 days.
The Fed's Losing Battle with Technological Deflation
PART 1/4 - FREE MARKET? First off, let's set the scene. The stock market is telling you nothing about the real economy anymore. Economic fundamentals have never mattered as little for the stock market as has been the case during this 11-year bull market. The correlation between gross-domestic-product growth and the direction of the S&P 500 Index has only been 7% in this cycle - historically it has been 30% to 70%. Why? Well, it is the Central Banks, led by the Fed, who printed their way out of the Recession in '08. In doing so, they have papered over the cracks, and we have seen the longest economic expansion in US history. However, this is not a particularly meritocratic process: money creation itself increases inequality via the Cantillon Effect, as money printing leads to asset price inflation, which disproportionately benefits the rich and hurts the poor. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker told the New York Times in 2018: “The central issue is we’re developing into a plutocracy. We’ve got an enormous number of enormously rich people that have convinced themselves that they’re rich because they’re smart and constructive." The reality of course is that this is largely not the case - it is because the game is rigged in their favour. Now, it is important to emphasise the fact that the path we have taken has resulted in the highest living standards we have seen in human history. However, the issue, particularly since the US completely abandoned the gold standard in 1971, is that debt has exploded to obscene levels. We are not operating in a free market if it takes $185 trillion of debt over the last 20 years to create 'growth'. In fact, the global debt to GDP ratio hit an all-time high of 322% in the third quarter of 2019. Inflation means that your dollar loses value and thus your purchasing power goes down. Deflation means that the value of your dollar goes up and your purchasing power goes up. That's a good thing right? You get more goods and services for less. Well, no. If you have deflation, debt explodes in real terms and you can never pay it back. As the economy is based on debt, if you allow deflation, then you have to reset the debt. This is why central banks fear deflation so much. However, the major force driving the human race is technological progress - and this stops for no mortal... PART 2/4 - TECHNOLOGICAL DEFLATION: The increased abundance created by technology will result in massive job losses. Throughout history, doom porn enthusiasts have screamed that the machines are coming for jobs. This is not a new phenomenon. All technological revolutions are deflationary - since they create "supply side shocks", meaning that they allow for more intensive use of resources and thus higher production. With more goods being produced, all other things being equal, the price of those goods will fall. In the last 20 years or so, software has disrupted and replaced many established goods and services. It is in the next 20 years that another disruptive technology is set to take the stage: AI According to Steve Schwarzman, the co-founder and CEO of The Blackstone Group who has a net worth of $17.6BN: "This is going to touch everyone's life....you're not going to be able to get away from this technology" Moreover, this virus will only accelerate this trend towards tech. Zoom is a fantastic example of exactly this. Old legacy economic systems were not built for this tech deflation, and the thing about exponential growth is that we humans do not intuitively understand it. As an example, if you folded a piece of paper 51 times, of course you can only fold it seven times, but if you could fold it 51 times, it would reach the Sun! PART 3/4 - IMPLICATIONS FOR SOCIETY: The question is: how does this play out? In the long term, it is the fundamental structure of the economic system that has a significant impact on people's lives, not who is President for 4 to 8 years. In reality, politicians have limited power and are effectively all puppets. We have seen what happens when a President doesn't stay in their lane... One could argue that the two main mechanisms of control are:
As we have seen many times in the past, herd psychology is worryingly easy to manipulate... Speaking of the censorship, in his book Antifragile, Nassim Taleb discusses the anti fragility of information. Information feeds more on attempts to harm it than it does on efforts to promote it. A fantastic example of this process is what has happened with London Real: they were banned on LinkedIn and David Icke's interview was censored. Now, regardless of what you think of this particular channel or your thoughts on David Icke and the theories provided, censoring information in this way actually spreads it more virally. It's fascinating to observe how many views the videos regarding the bans and censorship have relative to the others. And the impact this has had on subscribers. It is always easier to blame a bigger enemy (or create a new one) rather than to admit it's a structural problem. Therefore, you avoid short term pain...whatever the cost. The real question is if and when this situation will lead to social unrest... PART 4/4 - INTELLECTUAL CAPITALISM: The depth and width of jobs impacted by AI will continue to increase in the future. Now this will not necessarily happen straight away. However, our transition from commodity capitalism to intellectual capitalism is inevitable and the people and nations who fight against this trend will be on the wrong side of history. From a practical investment perspective, and disclaimer this is not investment advice, network effects are a crucial aspect to consider moving forwards. Essentially, this means that the value of the network increases with each additional user - all of the tech monopolies have exhibited this property. An asset which could in time demonstrate very strong network effects is Bitcoin. Looking at the market cap relative to other asset classes, Bitcoin provides an asymmetric investment opportunity. Only time will tell... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nFbKzt-uwE
You've probably been hearing a lot about Bitcoin recently and are wondering what's the big deal? Most of your questions should be answered by the resources below but if you have additional questions feel free to ask them in the comments. It all started with the release of the release of Satoshi Nakamoto's whitepaper however that will probably go over the head of most readers so we recommend the following videos for a good starting point for understanding how bitcoin works and a little about its long term potential:
Limited Supply - There will only ever be 21,000,000 bitcoins created and they are issued in a predictable fashion, you can view the inflation schedule here. Once they are all issued Bitcoin will be truly deflationary. The halving countdown can be found here.
Open source - Bitcoin code is fully auditable. You can read the source code yourself here.
Accountable - The public ledger is transparent, all transactions are seen by everyone.
Decentralized - Bitcoin is globally distributed across thousands of nodes with no single point of failure and as such can't be shut down similar to how Bittorrent works. You can even run a node on a Raspberry Pi.
Censorship resistant - No one can prevent you from interacting with the bitcoin network and no one can censor, alter or block transactions that they disagree with, see Operation Chokepoint.
Push system - There are no chargebacks in bitcoin because only the person who owns the address where the bitcoins reside has the authority to move them.
Low fee scaling - On chain transaction fees depend on network demand and how much priority you wish to assign to the transaction. Most wallets calculate on chain fees automatically but you can view current fees here and mempool activity here. On chain fees may rise occasionally due to network demand, however instant micropayments that do not require confirmations are happening via the Lightning Network, a second layer scaling solution currently rolling out on the Bitcoin mainnet.
Borderless - No country can stop it from going in/out, even in areas currently unserved by traditional banking as the ledger is globally distributed.
Portable - Bitcoins are digital so they are easier to move than cash or gold. They can even be transported by simply memorizing a string of words for wallet recovery (while cool this method is generally not recommended due to potential for insecure key generation by inexperienced users. Hardware wallets are the preferred method for new users due to ease of use and additional security).
Bitcoin.org and BuyBitcoinWorldwide.com are helpful sites for beginners. You can buy or sell any amount of bitcoin (even just a few dollars worth) and there are several easy methods to purchase bitcoin with cash, credit card or bank transfer. Some of the more popular resources are below, also check out the bitcoinity exchange resources for a larger list of options for purchases.
Here is a listing of local ATMs. If you would like your paycheck automatically converted to bitcoin use Bitwage. Note: Bitcoins are valued at whatever market price people are willing to pay for them in balancing act of supply vs demand. Unlike traditional markets, bitcoin markets operate 24 hours per day, 365 days per year. Preev is a useful site that that shows how much various denominations of bitcoin are worth in different currencies. Alternatively you can just Google "1 bitcoin in (your local currency)".
Securing your bitcoins
With bitcoin you can "Be your own bank" and personally secure your bitcoins OR you can use third party companies aka "Bitcoin banks" which will hold the bitcoins for you.
If you prefer to "Be your own bank" and have direct control over your coins without having to use a trusted third party, then you will need to create your own wallet and keep it secure. If you want easy and secure storage without having to learn computer security best practices, then a hardware wallet such as the Trezor, Ledger or ColdCard is recommended. Alternatively there are many software wallet options to choose from here depending on your use case.
If you prefer to let third party "Bitcoin banks" manage your coins, try Gemini but be aware you may not be in control of your private keys in which case you would have to ask permission to access your funds and be exposed to third party risk.
Note: For increased security, use Two Factor Authentication (2FA) everywhere it is offered, including email! 2FA requires a second confirmation code to access your account making it much harder for thieves to gain access. Google Authenticator and Authy are the two most popular 2FA services, download links are below. Make sure you create backups of your 2FA codes.
As mentioned above, Bitcoin is decentralized, which by definition means there is no official website or Twitter handle or spokesperson or CEO. However, all money attracts thieves. This combination unfortunately results in scammers running official sounding names or pretending to be an authority on YouTube or social media. Many scammers throughout the years have claimed to be the inventor of Bitcoin. Websites like bitcoin(dot)com and the btc subreddit are active scams. Almost all altcoins (shitcoins) are marketed heavily with big promises but are really just designed to separate you from your bitcoin. So be careful: any resource, including all linked in this document, may in the future turn evil. Don't trust, verify. Also as they say in our community "Not your keys, not your coins".
Where can I spend bitcoins?
Check out spendabit or bitcoin directory for millions of merchant options. Also you can spend bitcoin anywhere visa is accepted with bitcoin debit cards such as the CashApp card. Some other useful site are listed below.
Mining bitcoins can be a fun learning experience, but be aware that you will most likely operate at a loss. Newcomers are often advised to stay away from mining unless they are only interested in it as a hobby similar to folding at home. If you want to learn more about mining you can read more here. Still have mining questions? The crew at /BitcoinMining would be happy to help you out. If you want to contribute to the bitcoin network by hosting the blockchain and propagating transactions you can run a full node using this setup guide. If you would prefer to keep it simple there are several good options. You can view the global node distribution here.
Just like any other form of money, you can also earn bitcoins by being paid to do a job.
You can also earn bitcoins by participating as a market maker on JoinMarket by allowing users to perform CoinJoin transactions with your bitcoins for a small fee (requires you to already have some bitcoins.
The following is a short list of ongoing projects that might be worth taking a look at if you are interested in current development in the bitcoin space.
One Bitcoin is quite large (hundreds of £/$/€) so people often deal in smaller units. The most common subunits are listed below:
one bitcoin is equal to 100 million satoshis
1,000 per bitcoin
used as default unit in recent Electrum wallet releases
1,000,000 per bitcoin
colloquial "slang" term for microbitcoin (μBTC)
100,000,000 per bitcoin
smallest unit in bitcoin, named after the inventor
For example, assuming an arbitrary exchange rate of $10000 for one Bitcoin, a $10 meal would equal:
For more information check out the Bitcoin units wiki. Still have questions? Feel free to ask in the comments below or stick around for our weekly Mentor Monday thread. If you decide to post a question in /Bitcoin, please use the search bar to see if it has been answered before, and remember to follow the community rules outlined on the sidebar to receive a better response. The mods are busy helping manage our community so please do not message them unless you notice problems with the functionality of the subreddit. Note: This is a community created FAQ. If you notice anything missing from the FAQ or that requires clarification you can edit it here and it will be included in the next revision pending approval. Welcome to the Bitcoin community and the new decentralized economy!
Buying Bitcoin via a bank transfer or bank wire is the lowest fee option when purchasing from an exchange. Although you do not receive your funds instantly, the price you purchased at is saved. Unless you want to purchase Bitcoin and quickly move it off the exchange, a bank account is the best method for purchasing Bitcoin. Join the Bitcoin.com trading platform. Exchange one asset for another in our advanced and secure Bitcoin exchange. The best place to buy, sell and trade your cryptocurrencies. Buy Bitcoin Online Trusted by over 250,000 satisfied customers globally. Buy Bitcoin and other digital currencies with a debit or credit card from a leading cryptocurrency exchange platform. Simply, Securely & without the wait. So, to move $10,000 worth of Bitcoin from your own wallet to your bank account would cost 1.74 Bitcoins for the actual value, plus either $14.9 USD or .00259 Bitcoin for the transfer fee. This is a fairly standard transfer for most of the verified markets and exchanges. Available in 45+ countries, you can buy and sell Bitcoin with GBP or EUR using credit or debit card, bank transfer, SEPA, or Neteller. Mobile app Download the CoinCorner app and get access to your account wherever you are.
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