In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day
investing comments / day
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by energicrypto to energicryptocurrency [link] [comments]
Below you will find a Table of Contents that will cover all the fundamentals of the cryptocurrency.
Table of Contents
1. What is EnergiEnergi is a self-funding (no ICO and no premine) cryptocurrency that has a purpose to become the world’s leading cryptocurrency with the unification of Smart Contracts, Governance and Self-funding Treasury to ensure longevity and enable rapid growth. You can read more about why we decided to self-fund and chose not to conduct an ICO here.
Energi provides a small allocation to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) rewards, takes a bulk of the coin issuance and gives it to its treasury and active Masternodes. Energi also allocates 10% on-going reward to the leadership of the Energi Backbone, which is significantly less compared to today’s ICOs’ rewarding their founders between 20–50% of the tokens distributed. Another trait that sets Energi apart from ICOs is they give an on-going 10% allocation through each block reward, rather than rewarding the founders up-front.
2. What are the Fundamentals of Energi?
Energi features a powerful on-chain scaling solution with a system of incentivized full nodes called Energi Masternodes. A Masternode is a full node backed by 1,000 NRG collateral that provides level 2 scalability to the Energi Cryptocurrency. 40% of the emissions of Energi is allocated to Masternodes, providing an extremely strong incentive to grow the number of full nodes and scalability of the network.
Treasury allocation is decentralized, allowing for submitted proposals from anyone, to be voted on by Masternodes and paid out from the emissions.
Energi has a 14 day treasury cycle, allowing quick payments for proposal authors and contributors, as well as strategic responsiveness to effective proposals. Energi is guided by the principle that every dollar spent from its funding model should yield more than one dollar of value in return. Thanks to a 14 day treasury cycle, the Energi team is able to measure results and respond quickly to changes in strategy.
This governance model reduces risk by allowing participation from everyone who holds 1,000 NRG as a Masternode. In this way, the Energi community can work together on how to best build the strategic direction of Energi.
No coin supply limit ensures that Energi is prepared for the long term, avoiding “bubble” economics caused by dramatic early inflation that in most coins only serves to benefit founders ahead of increased adoption.
Energi Masternode payments were designed to begin at block 216000, which occurred on September 18, 2018, almost 160 days after launch. This ensured time to list Energi on exchanges, and to grow the community, encouraging fair and equitable distribution before the extremely powerful Masternode rewards began. It is all too common for Masternode coins to feature a premine, which has the effect of centralizing distribution among the founders and early adopters.
From 2018 to 2020, Energi distributed nearly 4 million coins to users who contributed to spreading awareness of the project with social media activities about Energi, such as tweets, follows, and subscriptions on all major social media platforms.
3. Coin SpecsTicker: NRG
Block time: 1 minute.
Hashing Algorithm: Dagger-Hashimoto (similar to Ethereum).
Masternode requirements: 1,000 Energi.
Treasury cycle: Every 14 days.
Approximately 1 million Energi will be released per month. The allocations can be observed easily as “10/10/40/40.”
10% will go to the Energi Backbone.
10% to the PoS participants
40% to Masternodes.
40% to the Treasury.
Thus, for every block, allocations are: 2.28 Energi to the Backbone, 2.28 Energi to the PoS participants, 9.14 Energi to the Treasury, and 9.14 Energi to Masternodes.
Since Treasury allocations are paid in two-week cycles, they are made in lump sums of approximately 184,000 Energi every 14 days.
In order to allow for widespread distribution of Energi before Masternode payments began, Masternode rewards were delayed until day 150. This was to allow the airdrop campaign to be completed and ensure a large amount of NRG is spread out through the community. Until that point, Masternode rewards were redirected to the Treasury. Thus for the first 5 months, the Treasury gained approximately 368,000 Energi every two weeks (about 800k Energi per month). The airdrop campaign was designed to release ~4 million Energi to the community.
4. How to Get Started
Publish 0x: https://www.publish0x.com/@energi
Telegram Announcement: https://t.me/energiannouncements
KuCoin - BTC: https://www.kucoin.com/trade/NRG-BTC
KuCoin - ETH: https://www.kucoin.com/trade/NRG-ETH
HitBTC - BTC: https://hitbtc.com/NRG-to-BTC
BitBNs - INR: https://bitbns.com/trade/#/nrg
Mercatox - BTC: https://mercatox.com/exchange/NRG/BTC
Mercatox - TUSD: https://mercatox.com/exchange/NRG/BTC
Bithumb - BTC: https://www.bithumb.pro/en-us/spot/trade?q=NRG-BTC
Bithumb - USDT: https://www.bithumb.pro/en-us/spot/trade?q=NRG-USDT
Citex - BTC: https://trade.citex.co.ktrade/NRG_BTC
Citex - USDT: https://trade.citex.co.ktrade/NRG_USDT
Beaxy - BTC: https://www.beaxy.com/trading-paiNRG-BTC
CoinAll - USDT: https://www.coinall.com/spot/full#product=nrg_usdt
WhiteBit - BTC: https://whitebit.com/trade/NRG_BTC
HitBTC - BTC: https://hitbtc.com/exchange/NRG-to-BTC
Gen 3 Calculator: https://nexus.energi.network/reward-calculator
Gen 2 Explorer: https://explorer.gen2.energi.network/
Gen 3 - Core Node: https://docs.energi.software/en/downloads/core-node
5. FAQsGen 3 Wiki: https://docs.energi.software/en/home
Core Node Sync: https://docs.energi.software/en/core-node-troubleshoot
Bitcoin News: News matters a lot too. Many times it is positive and many times it is negative. This leads to in heavy trading in the market either in sell or buys mode. Also if you are looking for what will be the future price of bitcoin? check out Bitcoin Price Prediction. Bitcoin Energy Value as an oscillator against price. Calculated as: (Bitcoin Price / Bitcoin Energy Value - 1) * 100 Populära - 100x; 100 Bitcoin till Kronor =9 593 507.33: 100 Bitcoin till Dollar =1 078 515.96: 100 Bitcoin till Euro =915 120.79: 100 Bitcoin till Pund Bitcoin Price Today. Die-hard BTC supporters believe that bitcoin is the future; we are just scratching the surface. Considering the continuous rise of bitcoin in the market capitalization, it is one investment every investor needs to take advantage of it. The current market capitalization of bitcoin stands at an all-time high of $109 billion. About Bitcoin. Bitcoin price today is $10,595.82 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $50,556,435,247 USD. Bitcoin is down 1.36% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #1, with a market cap of $196,126,817,695 USD.
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